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Prost!
Studio Eleven: The Underground
Photo by Mansoor Bhatti!
Retro style with new age personality, diggin’ it.
I. Information
A. The term extraterrestrial life contains two Latin words: extra (“beyond,” or “not of”) and terrestris (“of or belonging to Earth”), and is defined as life that originates from somewhere other than Earth.
B. The debate on whether extraterrestrial life exists has been going on for decades, if not centuries.
C. There is no physical evidence proving either side of this controversy.
D. Over the years, as technology has advanced more and more evidence has been found to support the possibility of the existence of intelligent extraterrestrial life.
E. Based on the widely accepted, Drake Equation’s, determination of the probability of the existence of extraterrestrial intelligent civilization, it is highly improbable that Earth is the only planet in the universe that contains intelligent life.
II. Body: Argument 1
A. The Drake Equation vs. The Fermi Paradox
B. (The Fermi Paradox), (“Top 10: Controversial”), (“How Many Galaxies”), (“Hungarians and the Fermi”), (Mike&Ike), (Landis)
C. The Drake Equation states that N = R* x f subscript p x n subscript e x f subscript l x f subscript e x f subscript i x L.
i. N is the number of civilizations in our galaxy with which we might expect to communicate with at any given time.
ii. R* is the rate of star formation in our galaxy.
iii. f subscript p is the fraction of those stars that have planets.
iv. n subscript e is the average number of planets that can support life per star that has planets.
v. f subscript l is the fraction of the above that actually go on to develop life.
vi. f subscript i is the fraction of the above that actually go on to develop intelligent life.
vii. f subscript c is the fraction of the above that are willing and able to communicate.
viii. L is the expected lifetime of such a civilization.
D. The original values plugged into this equation by Dr. Frank Drake and his colleagues in 1961 were as follows:
i. R* = 10/year
ii. f subscript p = 0.5
iii. n subscript e = 2
iv. f subscript l = 1
v. f subscript i = 0.01
vi. f subscript c = 0.01
vii. L = 10,000 years
viii. N = 10 civilizations in our galaxy alone.
E. The opposition to Drake’s original estimates is supportive of more pessimistic substitutes for the same variables.
i. R* = 6/year
a. This number is based on calculations from NASA and the European Space Agency of the current rate of star formation in our galaxy.
b. The Planck Institute for Extraterrestrial Life in Germany provides that our galaxy is not the largest producer of stars and supernovae in the universe so this number can skew the results pessimistically.
ii. f subscript p = 0.5; This is accepted by both views.
iii. n subscript e = 2;
a. The discovery of several gas-giants in orbit of their stars has caused a development of doubt in the number of life-supporting planets; though, the possibility of life on the moons’ of these gas-giants has ignited uncertainty in this figure.
b. Two life-supporting planets per star that has planets is also accepted by both.
iv. f subscript l = 0.33; Charles H. Lineweaver and Tamara M. Davis came up with this estimate based on the length of time it took for life to evolve on Earth.
v. f subscript i = 1.0x10^-7;
a. This estimate is based on the idea that solar systems with a radiation exposure as low as ours may be 100,000 rarer than Drake’s original estimate.
b. This is an assumption and is not proven.
vi. f subscript c = 0.01; This is a value accepted by both sides of the argument.
vii. L = 420
a. It was estimated by Michael Shermer, in 2005, that the life expectancy of a civilization is 420 years.
b. This idea was based on the compilation of the durations of sixty historical civilizations.
c. When evaluating the accuracy of this estimate, it must be taken into consideration that the end of these civilizations did not result in a loss of technology. The civilizations that followed carried on the technology and continued to advance.
d. Shermer’s estimate is regarded as pessimistic.
vii. N = 0.0000008316 (or 8.316x10^-7); This shows that per every 10 billion galaxies, 8,316 able and willing to communicate, intelligent civilizations exist.
F. Even the most pessimistic numbers in this statistical argument provide for intelligent life existing in the universe outside of Earth.
i. In 1999, the Hubble Space Telescope estimated, based upon the number of galaxies it observed in a visible amount of space (1,500), that there are 125 billion galaxies in the universe.
ii. Recently, with new camera technology the Hubble Space Telescope has been able to visibly recognize 3,000 galaxies. This means that the estimate of 125 billion galaxies total would also double resulting in the current estimate of 250 billion galaxies.
a. It is important to consider that the Hubble Space Telescope is a camera and therefore can only see 3,000 galaxies in our “visible” universe.
b. Other variables were used to determine the total number of galaxies. Galaxies have been detected using other technology such as: radio telescopes, infrared cameras, x-ray cameras, and more to “see” outside of what is visible.
c. Astrophysicists at NASA’s Goddard Space Flight Center note that as research and exploration of the universe continues and technology advances the number of estimated galaxies will continue to increase.
iii. With the current number of 250 billion galaxies in the universe, even the most pessimistic statistical calculations it is provided that 207,900 willing to communicate and able intelligent civilizations exist in the universe (this is found by taking the 250 billion galaxies times the ratio of 8,316 intelligent civilizations per 10 billion galaxies).
G. The Fermi Paradox, introduced in 1951 by Italian Physicist Enrico Fermi, opposes the Drake Equation (and all ideas of the existance of intelligent extraterrestrial life) by saying that if said life did exist then it would have come into contact with Earth by now.
i. Fermi, said to have been a firm believer in the existence of intelligent extraterrestrial life, was frustrated by the lack of evidence and asked, “Where are they?”
a. Fermi claimed that if even one extraterrestrial civilization in our galaxy developed the ability to travel interstellar distances, at even a small fraction of the speed of light, the whole galaxy could be colonized in a few million years.
b. Under this assumption, given that the galaxy is billions of years old, Fermi believed that Earth should have been visited by extraterrestrial life long ago.
ii. The Fermi Paradox assumes that:
a. there is one technologically advanced civilization in our galaxy aside from that on Earth (which with our statistical estimate of 8.316 intelligent civilizations per every 10 million galaxies (equal to 8,316 per every 10 billion) would make it HIGHLY unlikely that our galaxy contains two).
b. this technologically advanced civilization is so advanced that they have developed a method interstellar travel.
c. this method of travel can reach other life sustaining planets for colonization (which at a rate less than the speed of light would require thousands of years of travel to reach the closest life sustaining planet).
d. then after colonizing the nearest life sustaining planet, this planet has the resources to duplicate the technology used in the original interstellar traveling device or the fuel supply to journey further in the one already made.
iii. The probability that our galaxy contains an intelligent civilizations including our own is ___________.
a. If by some fluke our galaxy does contain another intelligent civilization all of the other variables would have to fall into place perfectly for this civilization to come into contact with Earth.
III. Conclusion
A. The Drake Equation’s determination of the probability of intelligent extraterrestrial civilizations existing makes it highly improbable that Earth is the only planet with intelligent life.
B. Considering the Fermi Paradox claims “because we have not come into contact with extraterrestrial life, it does not exist” as it’s only argument against the existence of intelligent civilizations outside of Earth, it is clear that because the probability of coming into contact with extraterrestrial life is so low that the Fermi Paradox is not a sustainable argument against the existence of civilizations of intelligent life in the universe.
C. The conclusion can clearly be made that life is highly likely to exist outside of Earth, so likely that it could easily be said that it does, yet the probability of this debate never ending victoriously is one thing that is certain nearly one hundred percent.
Oh, that I were where I would be,
Then I would be where I am not,
But where I am there I must be,
And where I would be, I can not.
She lays her head to rest. A planned glance into the night sky- the last image before her eyes gently close. Then it became, as cognition dies and reverie ignites, apparent. She was not alone.
Barron darkness surrounded her as she was finally asleep. No images haunted her yet. She was at the station but no train, no misfit sequence of storyboard boxcars, had arrived. The time between sleep and dream was solitude and never had she been caught there for so long.
Wisps of hair grazed the girl’s cheek as a gentle breeze passed over the field. The tall grasses and clover rhythmically swayed releasing their lively aroma into the summer air. It was mid-June and the sky agreed. The clouds, seeming to be puppets, performed an entrancing recital for the girl. She often danced about in her white, cotton, dress pretending that she, too, was an obedient marionette of the Great Puppeteer in the sky.
The girl removed her shoes and ran across the field toward a rusted gate enclosing the back pasture of her family’s land. She unraveled the heavy chain that bound the gate to an old wooden fence post and it slid formlessly to the ground. The girl stood on the gate, the metal - cold upon her skin, as it creakily swung open. Again, she was on her way. She stopped in the pasture for but a moment to take in her surroundings. Noticing no changes or followers, she continued to a stream that lay just beyond the tree line.
The stream was pure and had a crisp taste that the girl craved after her pilgrimage across the fields. The water gracefully flowed downstream bending around rocks with poise. After a rain, the stream was turbulent and the water met the rocks with clashes and crashes of disagreement, but today, all was calm.
